World Cup - Round Of 32

Mexico vs Ecuador

01/07/2026 01:00 UTC Scheduled
Mexico Mexico Home
vs
Ecuador Ecuador Away
Confidence Overall ? Medium Agreement ? High Reliability ? Medium Match Type ? Slight Home Low
Match preview

Mexico vs Ecuador preview

Public data

Mexico vs Ecuador is a World Cup match scheduled for 2026-07-01 at 01:00 UTC. This page gives a public pre-match view of the fixture context: recent form, team averages, statistical comparison, and useful details before kick-off.

Match Statistics

Pre-match analysis based on recent averages, including matches across seasons and competitions.
Pre-match only - not live stats
These indicators describe context before kick-off and stay separate from the dedicated Live page.
Form 5
W W W D L
6 GF / 1 GA
Goal average
0.9 / 0.6
GF/match - GA/match
Over 2.5 / BTTS
20.0% / 10.0%
last 10
Clean sheet
60.0%
last 10
XGoals Pre-Match
0.99
pre-match model estimate
Possession
54.4%
last 5
Scoring streak 3 Unbeaten streak 4 Passing accuracy 83.6%
Matches considered for form and goals: 10 (current season: 3, previous seasons: 7).
Matches used for these metrics: 5.
Form 5
W D L D D
3 GF / 3 GA
Goal average
1.1 / 0.9
GF/match - GA/match
Over 2.5 / BTTS
40.0% / 60.0%
last 10
Clean sheet
30.0%
last 10
XGoals Pre-Match
0.4
pre-match model estimate
Possession
51.0%
last 5
Scoring streak 1 Unbeaten streak 2 Passing accuracy 82.2%
Matches considered for form and goals: 10 (current season: 3, previous seasons: 7).
Matches used for these metrics: 5.
Recent match statistics comparison
Pre-match averages over the latest 5 usable matches
Mexico
Metric/Average
Ecuador
54.4%
Ball possession
51.0%
83.6%
Passing accuracy
82.2%
444.2
Total passes
428.4
4.4
Shots on target
4.8
14.6
Total shots
13.0
5.2
Shots off target
5.6
5.0
Blocked shots
2.6
3.2
Corners
4.8
12.2
Fouls
12.2
1.6
Offsides
1.3
1.8
Goalkeeper saves
2.6
Mexico
W / D / L%
W 50.0%
D 30.0%
L 20.0%
GF / GA match
GF 1.0
GA 1.2
Over 2.5% 30.0%
BTTS% 20.0%
Ecuador
W / D / L%
W 10.0%
D 50.0%
L 40.0%
GF / GA match
GF 0.7
GA 1.4
Over 2.5% 30.0%
BTTS% 40.0%
2024-07-01
Mexico 0-0 Ecuador
Mexico
3 days ago WC
Czechia - Mexico 0-3 W
9 days ago WC
Mexico - South Korea 1-0 W
17 days ago WC
Mexico - South Africa 2-0 W
727 days ago AMC
Mexico - Ecuador 0-0 D
731 days ago AMC
Venezuela - Mexico 1-0 L
Ecuador
3 days ago WC
Ecuador - Germany 2-1 W
7 days ago WC
Ecuador - Curaรงao 0-0 D
14 days ago WC
Ivory Coast - Ecuador 1-0 L
723 days ago AMC
Argentina - Ecuador 1-1 D
727 days ago AMC
Mexico - Ecuador 0-0 D

Model Outcome

Pre-match model output, separated from descriptive match statistics.
Model poisson_v1.2.4
Updated: 2026-06-28T05:02:25.792120+00:00
Mexico Mexico - Ecuador Ecuador
Model Estimate

Pre-match xG

Home xG
0.99
Away xG
0.4
Market probabilities

Home / Draw / Away

Home
49.5%
Draw
36.1%
Away
14.4%

Top scoreline

0-0
25.0%
1-0
24.5%
2-0
12.3%
Others
38.3%
Market probabilities

Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.5
16.5%
Under 2.5
83.5%

BTTS: YES/NO

BTTS: YES
21.0%
BTTS: NO
79.0%
Context metrics
Confidence 1X2 Medium
Confidence U/O High
Confidence BTTS High
Confidence Scoreline High
Mexico Mexico - Ecuador Ecuador

Premium Outcome

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Mexico Mexico - Ecuador Ecuador

Community Outcome

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FAQ

Match FAQ

When is Mexico vs Ecuador?

Mexico vs Ecuador is scheduled for 2026-07-01 at 01:00 UTC.

Which competition includes Mexico vs Ecuador?

The match is part of World Cup.

Which pre-match data is available?

The page shows public data such as recent form, goal averages, team comparison, and match context.

Why does the model favor Mexico?

The main edge is in the pre-match xG estimate: Mexico reaches 0.99 xG against Ecuador's 0.40. This suggests higher expected attacking volume and a better chance of creating scoring chances.