UEFA Europa League - 1St Qualifying Round

Derry City vs CSKA Sofia

16/07/2026 17:30 UTC Scheduled
Derry City Derry City Home
vs
CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia Away
Confidence Overall ? High Agreement ? High Reliability ? Medium Match Type ? Uneven Home Mid
Match preview

Derry City vs CSKA Sofia preview

Public data

Derry City vs CSKA Sofia is a UEFA Europa League match scheduled for 2026-07-16 at 17:30 UTC. This page gives a public pre-match view of the fixture context: recent form, team averages, statistical comparison, and useful details before kick-off.

Match Statistics

Pre-match analysis based on recent averages, including matches across seasons and competitions.
Pre-match only - not live stats
These indicators describe context before kick-off and stay separate from the dedicated Live page.
Derry City
Team details
Form 5
L W L W L
5 GF / 6 GA
Goal average
1.1 / 1.2
GF/match - GA/match
Over 2.5 / BTTS
30.0% / 30.0%
last 10
Clean sheet
40.0%
last 10
XGoals Pre-Match
2.3
pre-match model estimate
Possession
54.0%
last 5
Scoring streak 2
Matches considered for form and goals: 10 (current season: 1, previous seasons: 9).
Matches used for these metrics: 5.
CSKA Sofia
Team details
Form 5
W L L L W
4 GF / 10 GA
Goal average
1.2 / 1.4
GF/match - GA/match
Over 2.5 / BTTS
40.0% / 20.0%
last 10
Clean sheet
40.0%
last 10
XGoals Pre-Match
0.19
pre-match model estimate
Possession
45.0%
last 5
Scoring streak 1 Unbeaten streak 1 Passing accuracy 62.5%
Matches considered for form and goals: 10 (current season: 1, previous seasons: 9).
Matches used for these metrics: 5.
Recent match statistics comparison
Pre-match averages over the latest 5 usable matches
Derry City
Metric/Average
CSKA Sofia
54.0%
Ball possession
45.0%
-
Passing accuracy
62.5%
-
Total passes
276.5
3.5
Shots on target
2.3
11.5
Total shots
11.0
5.0
Shots off target
4.7
3.0
Blocked shots
2.5
2.5
Corners
6.5
15.0
Fouls
9.0
1.0
Offsides
3.0
3.0
Goalkeeper saves
2.3
Derry City
W / D / L%
W 56.0%
D 0.0%
L 44.0%
GF / GA match
GF 1.22
GA 1.11
Over 2.5% 33.0%
BTTS% 22.0%
CSKA Sofia
W / D / L%
W 10.0%
D 30.0%
L 60.0%
GF / GA match
GF 0.4
GA 1.8
Over 2.5% 20.0%
BTTS% 20.0%
2026-07-09
CSKA Sofia 3-2 Derry City
Derry City
today EL
CSKA Sofia - Derry City 3-2 L
721 days ago ECL
Derry City - Magpies 2-0 W
728 days ago ECL
Magpies - Derry City 2-0 L
1057 days ago ECL
Derry City - FK Tobol Kostanay 1-0 W
1064 days ago ECL
FK Tobol Kostanay - Derry City 1-0 L
CSKA Sofia
today EL
CSKA Sofia - Derry City 3-2 W
1071 days ago ECL
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe - CSKA Sofia 4-0 L
1078 days ago ECL
CSKA Sofia - Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 0-2 L
1414 days ago ECL
FC Basel 1893 - CSKA Sofia 2-0 L
1421 days ago ECL
CSKA Sofia - FC Basel 1893 1-0 W

Model Outcome

Pre-match model output, separated from descriptive match statistics.
Model poisson_v1.2.4
Updated: 2026-07-09T20:56:14.659640+00:00
Derry City Derry City - CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia
Model Estimate

Pre-match xG

Home xG
2.3
Away xG
0.19
Market probabilities

Home / Draw / Away

Home
85.3%
Draw
12.6%
Away
2.1%

Top scoreline

2-0
22.1%
1-0
19.1%
3-0
16.9%
Others
41.9%
Market probabilities

Over/Under 2.5

Over 2.5
44.9%
Under 2.5
55.1%

BTTS: YES/NO

BTTS: YES
15.8%
BTTS: NO
84.2%
Context metrics
Confidence 1X2 High
Confidence U/O Low
Confidence BTTS High
Confidence Scoreline High
Derry City Derry City - CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia

Premium Outcome

Extended premium model output, with additional markets and dedicated confidence.
Premium Access
This section is available to premium users only.
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Derry City Derry City - CSKA Sofia CSKA Sofia

Community Outcome

Log in to view the community outcome.
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FAQ

Match FAQ

When is Derry City vs CSKA Sofia?

Derry City vs CSKA Sofia is scheduled for 2026-07-16 at 17:30 UTC.

Which competition includes Derry City vs CSKA Sofia?

The match is part of UEFA Europa League.

Which pre-match data is available?

The page shows public data such as recent form, goal averages, team comparison, and match context.

Why does the model favor Derry City?

The main edge is in the pre-match xG estimate: Derry City reaches 2.30 xG against CSKA Sofia's 0.19. This suggests higher expected attacking volume and a better chance of creating scoring chances.